As the release date for Universal’s highly anticipated film adaptation of *Wicked* approaches on November 22, there has been a palpable excitement in the air. The musical’s first-day advance ticket sales on Fandango have not only shattered expectations but have also positioned it as the second-best performing release so far this year, trailing only behind the success of the Marvel franchise films. This remarkable achievement signals a strong interest from audiences, suggesting that *Wicked* could be poised for a spectacular opening weekend, echoing the monumental successes of past blockbuster hits.
The decision to move the film’s release day from the Wednesday before Thanksgiving to the scheduled opening day of Paramount’s *Gladiator II* was a strategic maneuver. By distancing itself from the potential competition posed by Disney’s *Moana 2*, Universal has set *Wicked* up for what many industry insiders hope will lead to another “Barbenheimer” phenomenon at the box office—a term that captures the simultaneous success of two opposing films. This shift in release strategy not only maximizes audience potential but also creates a new landscape for moviegoers who may be torn between two major blockbusters.
The pre-sale statistics for *Wicked* are nothing short of remarkable. It is not only the top PG-rated first-day ticket pre-seller in 2024 but also holds the distinction of being the third-best PG-rated first-day ticket pre-seller of all time. Only *Frozen II* and 2019’s *The Lion King* stand ahead. The projections suggest an opening weekend that could rival other significant animated and family films, showcasing the enduring popularity of the story of Elphaba and Glinda. While historical data suggests that presales do not always equate to box office success, they have become a reliable indicator in the current cinematic landscape, especially coming out of a strike-impacted season.
In light of these impressive metrics, Jerramy Hainline, EVP of Fandango Ticketing, added fuel to the fire with a statement highlighting the “incredibly high” fan anticipation for *Wicked*. As a musical that has resonated deeply with audiences around the world, its transition from stage to screen is seen as a rare opportunity to experience the narrative on a grand scale. The alignment of critical acclaim from the stage production with the cinematic interpretation is constructing an air of excitement that is hard to ignore.
While the initial presale figures for *Wicked* are encouraging, industry veteran watchers remain cautiously optimistic. Historical trends indicate that while presales can create buzz, they are not absolute predictors of actual box office gross. As moviegoers prioritize their weekend activities, the performance of *Wicked* remains to be seen—yet the pre-release excitement is undeniably a positive sign. Aside from directly competing with *Gladiator II*, the film stands to garner attention from families during the Thanksgiving holiday, leading to an opening weekend that could very well break records. With a robust marketing campaign and enthusiastic audience interest, *Wicked* is gearing up to be a memorable entry in this year’s cinematic releases.