Dwayne Johnson, a powerhouse in Hollywood, embarks on yet another cinematic adventure with the festive movie “Red One”. This film, costing over $200 million, represents Amazon’s significant investment in theatrical releases, particularly during the competitive holiday season. The movie had a soft launch, raking in $3.7 million during its preview screenings, a figure that incorporates earnings from a special Sunday showing. Despite the strong star power and a generous budget, the initial tracking projections suggest a somewhat lukewarm response, indicating an anticipated opening between $30 million to $35 million.
“Red One” stands to break records as the biggest opening ever for a film produced by a streaming service, narrowly eclipsing previous titles like Apple’s “Killers of the Flower Moon.” However, the film’s prospects sit in stark contrast to traditional blockbuster expectations. In examining recent post-COVID box office performances, movies like “Bullet Train” and “M3GAN” have achieved somewhat similar openings, yet none have garnered the same production budget as “Red One.” This raises questions about its viability as a commercially successful venture for Amazon.
Originally meant for a direct-to-streaming release on Prime Video, the film’s transition to the big screen reflects a strategic pivot from Amazon MGM. The decision was driven by promising test screenings that encouraged a theatrical rollout. This change echoes the sentiments of an industry slowly acknowledging the appetite for theatrical experiences, especially during the holiday rush. Acknowledging this shift, it is critical to note how Amazon’s financial structure allows them to absorb potential risks that traditional studios might struggle to withstand.
While the expectations for box office performance are one metric of success, critical responses can significantly affect a film’s longevity and viewer interest. “Red One” is struggling in this department, boasting a dismal 34% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, marking another entry into Johnson’s repertoire of films that satisfy mass audiences but fail to impress critics. Historical precedence indicates critics often regard Johnson’s films with skepticism, as seen with “Rampage” and “Black Adam.” Nevertheless, Johnson’s strong CinemaScores demonstrate his ability to resonate with audiences, and it remains to be seen how this film will be judged by viewers beyond initial box office figures.
The disparity in market reactions emphasizes a critical inflection point in the film industry. While traditional studios experience significant financial losses on high-budget projects, Amazon’s market position enables a more resilient business model. For example, the $100 million loss experienced by Warner Bros with “Joker: Folie a Deux” serves as a stark reminder of the high stakes for traditional studios. Conversely, Amazon can argue for the long-term benefits of a film like “Red One” tied into its broader ecosystem, including promotions for its Prime subscription service.
The ambitions behind “Red One” reflect a broader trend in the film industry, particularly regarding holiday releases. Amazon hopes the film will become a perennial favorite akin to Netflix’s “Christmas Chronicles.” This aspiration relies on the angle that holiday films can generate consistent viewership over the years, thereby contributing positively to Amazon’s library and overall brand identity. However, the challenge lies in the film’s current critical perception, which could hinder its desired legacy as a holiday classic.
As “Red One” makes its way through the holiday box office landscape, observers must consider various factors that contribute to its perceived success. Major financial investments do not guarantee immediate returns, especially when facing critical scrutiny. Amazon’s strategy of focusing on long-term engagement through its streaming service will be a double-edged sword: it may buffer initial box office disappointments, yet it also brings to light the ongoing struggle for cinematic releases in a streaming-dominated environment. The future will reveal whether “Red One” can carve its niche, not just as a holiday escape for audiences but as a successful catalyst in Amazon’s film strategy.